Mixed Messages on Severity of Violence in Mexico

Mexico’s federal attorney general said yesterday that more than 1,000 people have been killed in drug violence so far this year, according to the Associated Press.   The two-month tally is keeping pace with last year, which saw 6,290 people die in drug related killings, the attorney general noted.

These statistics along with some sensational news items in Mexico are enough to make the average American give their south-of-the border vacation plans a second look.

But some doubt that Mexico’s drug war will affect most tourists. Visits to the country by foreign tourists increased last year, even though the number of drug related killings doubled from 2007.

Sensational News Stories. The night the U.S. elected a new president,  a fiery plane crash in Mexico City killed the nation’s interior minister and a former prosecutor who once led the fight against the country’s drug cartels. The government attributed the crash to pilot error, but there was speculation that sabotage caused the crash.

Another sensational incident occurred in December when a well known U.S. security consultant who successfully negotiated the release of scores of kidnapping victims was abducted in northern Mexico.

Most Tourists Not Likely to Be Affected. But a travel writer suggests that the drug war will have little impact on tourists.

“When you look at the statistics from the US State Dept. on unnatural deaths of US citizens (you can find the report online), you see that the majority of Americans killed in Mexico are either victims of accidents (drowning and car accidents, mostly) or were involved in gang or drug activity in the border towns,” Robin Noelle said in an e-mail.

Noelle, a Mexico-based travel writer and blogger for Mexico News & Reviews, added that “a very, very small number were victims of crime and even then, a portion of those were more than likely involved in risky behavior such as buying drugs or over consuming alcohol.”

U.S. Media Reports. Her assertion is supported by recent U.S. media reports that since 2004 about 70 Americans were killed in Mexico while there on seemingly innocent business.

It’s worth mentioning that the headline for most of these reports was that over 200 Americans were killed. So, 130 or 65 percent of the victims were killed while  engaged in some type of illicit activity.

Even one death is too many. But when you consider that Mexico had about 23 million foreign tourists last year, the odds seem to be heavily weighed in innocent tourists’ favor.

Photo by joseloya (Via Creative Commons)